The World Fiddles While the Economy Burns

Plenty of Blame for What’s Coming President Donald Trump’s trade war gets well-earned blame for the global economy’s slowdown, which keeps deepening, according to new IMF forecasts. But his critics can’t be too smug, their poor leadership could make a global downturn even worse. Take Europe, for example. It still lacks a unified budget or … Read more The World Fiddles While the Economy Burns

The World Economy Is Stumbling Toward Disaster

If a new recession strikes, the Trump administration will get — and deserve — much of the blame. The world’s finance ministers and central-bank governors gathered this past weekend in Washington and looked out at a global economy badly in need of treatment. Most say they understand the dangers, but that seems open to question. … Read more The World Economy Is Stumbling Toward Disaster

Which Is Scarier, Climate Change or CLOs?

Call it the Greta effect. Global finance titans gathered at the annual International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington this week identified climate change as a key risk to the long-term health of the world economy. It was one of the hot topics discussed, perhaps partly inspired by the teenage activist who has made saving the … Read more Which Is Scarier, Climate Change or CLOs?

Bloomberg’s Recession Tracker – October 14, 2019

Recession fears have grown in recent months amid a persistent trade war with China, pullbacks in corporate hiring and investment and a manufacturing sector that has already slipped into contraction. The economy is cooling, but the big question is whether the slowdown will morph into something darker. Bloomberg Economics created a model to determine America’s … Read more Bloomberg’s Recession Tracker – October 14, 2019

Tips for Spotting a U.S. Recession Before It Becomes Official

As the U.S. nears a record-long expansion in July, the conversation is increasingly turning to when it will all end. Recessions are inherently hard to spot. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, a panel whose determinations of when expansions begin and end are accepted as official, generally waits about a year … Read more Tips for Spotting a U.S. Recession Before It Becomes Official

A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse

Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index, which captures turning points in the economy, fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record and the lowest level since December 2008 during the financial crisis, according to the firm. Every … Read more A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse